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Nutshell Sports/ARGH Superlist

Different systems consider different factors in different proportions. It's my opinion that
a Superlist can be made which combines systems of different theories into a very
accurate rating system. I had used fifteen systems in the past but have decided that the
outcome is too similar to all ratings combined - for example,
Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page
. This year I have cut the number from ten
to nine. I aligned the 94 systems on Kenneth's page according to where they fall on my
retrodictive-to-predictive scale. Then:

  • The first choice was one of the two centermost;
  • The next two were near the extremes;
  • The next two were halfway between the extremes and the center;
  • The next two were halfway between those and the center;
  • The next two were halfway between those and the center;
  • The calculations are done with a formula leaning toward the median, not the average, position.

Year before last I consulted an expert (you can tell that by his success) in Stewart Huckaby,
the mathematical wizard behind ARGH Ratings. That is why I decided his ratings should
be listed in the name of the Superlist. (That means I can annoy him again, later?) This season's
contributors will be:

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together
to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For
that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to
promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
10/22/2004

The last number in each listing is the ranking on
Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page as a comparison
on the day the Superlist publication.

You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post
it on your site as soon as it is completed. A link to the
Superlist page is required.

rank lw team             rating  KM Consensus

 1  3   USC              99.389   1
 2  2   Miami FL         98.833   2
 3  1   Oklahoma         97.333   3
 4  4   Auburn           96.444   4
 5  7   Florida State    95.722   6
 6  8   Utah             95.444   5
 7  6   California       93.139   7
 8 11   Louisville       90.194  15
 9 12   Georgia          90.028  12
10  5   Purdue           89.333  14
11 17   Texas A&M        89.167   9
12 10   Arizona State    88.500   8
13 14   Tennessee        88.333  10
14 18   Wisconsin        86.972  11
15 13   Virginia         85.444  16
16 15   Texas            84.889  13
17 16   LSU              84.556  21
18  9   Oklahoma State   84.250  17
19 19   Michigan         82.389  19
20 20   Boise State      78.861  18
21 27   Notre Dame       78.403  20
22 24   Florida          75.722  24
23 22   Texas Tech       74.778  22
24 26   Virginia Tech    73.444  27
25 new  Stanford         72.583  23
26 new  Iowa             72.194  26
27 23   South Carolina   70.278  29
28 30   UAB              70.222  25
29 25   Southern Miss    68.000  40
30 21   Minnesota        67.583  30

Previously, I had planned to use the Dunkel Index but changed my
mind since it is pay-to-see. I only want to use something you can
actually view. However, if you want to pay the subscription, that's
up to you.

The Superlist is compiled from nine excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

(The following is an explanation of how the system is set up but not for
nine teams. When I wrote this there were ten systems. Not all this
information will be on the preliminary rankings.)
rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula. This indicates how many points by which a team will
win or lose a game using simple subtraction. A home team would have a
slight advantage. That advantage would be added to their rating to get
a more accurate estimate of the outcome. If a team wins the number
one position in all ten rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins
all ten number two positions it will score 99. With all ten number thirty
positions a team would score 71.

points = a number one team would get 30 points from each system that
rated the team there, a number two team would get 29, etc. The number
here is the sum of all the points awarded to each team by the separate
systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. The median used here only includes the systems that
actually awarded the team one of its top thirty positions. For example,
if a team only made three of the top thirties, in positions 18, 24,
and 25, the median position would be the middle one - 24. If there are
an even number of systems placing the team in their top thirties, the
two middle numbers are averaged for the median. That moves one
system above the median and one system below the median unless both
systems assign the team the same position. Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.

The other numbers displayed show how many systems placed each team at
number one, in the top five, the top ten, and the top thirty.
 
The nine systems included in the Superlist are:

The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings
http://www.geocities.com/kambour/football.html

Sorenson Sports Rankings
http://www.phys.utk.edu/sorensen/cfr/cfr/output/2003/CF_2003_Main.html

Bow Down To Entropy College Football Ratings
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/index.html

Bassett Football Model
http://members.cox.net/gbassett/football/

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

TeamRankings.com
http://teamrankings.com/ncf/

Armstrong College Football Ranking System
http://home.earthlink.net/~ztarmstrong/Div1ACFB/cfbase.htm

Gupta Power Ratings for College Football
http://www.bapi.net/football/college.rat.html

College Football Performance Ratings
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of YourLinx
Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the
property of Ray Waits. This list is the property of Ray Waits and
David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/index.html

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://www.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 



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