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Who Should Really Go to the Big Bowls?

My BCS Solution

What teams should really go to the big bowls? I have a simple solution.

I used to toy around with making imaginary ratings with the odds - that is, if the oddsmakers published ratings, how would the teams rank? It was interesting to me but I'm not really sure that anyone else grasped the importance of such a list. I dropped it eventually.

The idea has come to me that there could be a simple system by which you could truly determine teams that are up to the demand of great bowl games. It's very simple.

Method

The purpose of retrodictive ratings is to place the teams in the most perfect order using a complicated system like mine and dozens of others around the Internet and beyond. Why not have a simple system that everyone can follow?

Using the theory behind my "odds" ratings, here is the solution. The problem with polls and ratings is that the typical sports fan doesn't understand how they work. This system is easy to understand and is fair to all teams, whether they have soft schedules like TCU or tough ones like USC and LSU.

Here is the simple method I used.

I began by assigning a numerical rating to all the teams which just happened to be the same number. When two teams played, I simply moved their ratings apart so that their ratings (to keep it simple) would match the margin of victory within one point. For example, if team A (rating 70) beat team B (rating 70) by whatever number of points, I spread the ratings out to 20-22 points. (I considered the ideal margin to be 21. You might see it differently.) Thus team A now has a rating of 80 and team B has a rating of 60 - a difference of 20 points. Thus

Team A 49 old rating - 70 new rating - 80
Team B 16 old rating - 70 new rating - 60

When week two's games are played, the ratings are updated and teams that are 2-0 continue to move up, teams that are 0-2 continue to move down, thus "spreading out" the teams. A team with a high rating can continue to increase their rating as they beat teams with higher ratings. Upsets are what make it tick. A team can move ever upward but once they lose a game their rating drops dramatically. If they continue to play well, their rating continues to rebuild upward.

If a team has a strong schedule, it can afford to lose a game or two and recover. For example, USC has recovered quite well. What about TCU, undefeated as of this writing? They have just as much of a chance as anyone if they play as little as one strong opponent. Once they lose a game, however, having a weak schedule, it would be very difficult to recover. But once a team has built up a strong rating, assuming it doesn't lose, who can say they don't belong in the BCS mix?

And, now, here is the final progress report.
01/09/2004
Final Tally

1	USC	129
2	Ohio State	117
3	Maryland	114
4	LSU	112
5	Miami FL	111
6	Michigan	109
7	Utah	109
8	Miami Ohio	108
9	Boston College	101
10	Clemson	101
11	Georgia	100
12	Kansas State	97
13	Iowa	97
14	Mississippi	97
15	Boise State	96
16	Bowling Green	94
17	Virginia	94
18	Washington State	94
19	West Virginia	93
20	Oregon State	93
21	Florida State	91
22	Oklahoma	91
23	Arkansas	91
24	Southern Miss	89
25	Nebraska	89
26	Minnesota	89
27	Louisville	87
28	California	86
29	Auburn	85
30	Georgia Tech	85
31	Connecticut	84
32	Washington	84
33	Arizona State	83
34	Tennessee	81
35	Colorado State	81
36	Purdue	80
37	Texas Tech	80
38	NC State	80
39	Hawaii	80
40	Syracuse	79
41	Toledo	78
42	Marshall	78
43	Florida	77
44	Fresno State	77
45	Northern Illinois	77
46	Oklahoma State	76
47	TCU	76
48	UNLV	76
49	Duke	75
50	Memphis	75
51	Northwestern	74
52	Texas	73
53	New Mexico	73
54	Pittsburgh	73
55	Nevada	72
56	Rice	72
57	W Michigan	71
58	Rutgers	71
59	Missouri	70
60	San Diego State	70
61	Oregon	69
62	Michigan State	69
63	La-Lafayette	68
64	South Florida	68
65	Tulane	67
66	BYU	66
67	Akron	66
68	Colorado	65
69	Wisconsin	65
70	Virginia Tech	65
71	Tulsa	64
72	NM State	63
73	Arizona	62
74	South Carolina	62
75	Stanford	61
76	Vanderbilt	60
77	Middle Tenn	60
78	Notre Dame	59
79	Houston	59
80	Kansas	59
81	Navy	59
82	Texas A&M	59
83	Kent State	58
84	Wyoming	56
85	E Michigan	56
86	UCLA	56
87	Wake Forest	56
88	North Texas	55
89	North Carolina	55
90	UAB	53
91	Louisiana Tech	52
92	San Jose State	52
93	Penn State	51
94	Troy State	51
95	Air Force	50
96	Temple	48
97	Iowa State	47
98	Mississippi St	47
99	Alabama	46
100	East Carolina	46
101	C Michigan	45
102	Baylor	45
103	Idaho	45
104	Ball State	44
105	Indiana	44
106	Cincinnati	44
107	Arkansas State	40
108	Kentucky	40
109	Buffalo	38
110	UTEP	35
111	Central Florida	35
112	Illinois	32
113	Army	32
114	SMU	29
115	Ohio	27
116	Utah State	25
117	La-Monroe	18

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